The Return of El Niño and its Possible Impact on the Philippines

The United Nations (UN) World Meteorological Organization issued a warning to prepare for the potential development of El Niño later this year. Meanwhile, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has observed and projected an 80 percent chance of El Niño occurring in June, July, and August. This weather phenomenon may persist until the first quarter of 2024.

El Niño refers to a climatic occurrence characterized by above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern regions of the equatorial Pacific. It can cause changes in weather patterns around the world. This occurrence can also result in drought and altered rainfall.

Filipinos are no strangers to hot weather since the Philippines is a tropical country. Residents of tropical nations are accustomed to living in warm and humid climates, where temperatures typically range from 25°C to 35°C and humidity levels can be high, particularly during the dry season. What should we know about the upcoming El Niño?

1. El Niño may lead to water supply depletion

PAGASA expects less rainfall to happen when El Niño starts and our water sources like dams or deep wells will not recuperate enough supply due to hot weather. It is likely to have various water supply interruptions, particularly in highly populated areas in the country like Metro Manila where demand is also higher.

2. El Niño threatens the agriculture and food production security

Aside from water supply depletion, El Niño may lead to drought and have negative impacts on crop production, and reduce yields. This affects the availability and affordability of food because of abnormal rainfall that may result in soil erosion and crop diseases. The Department of Agriculture (DA) reported that they started to prepare for El Niño by buffering stocks of rice that can last for 90 days.

3. El Niño brings different health risks

The changes in rainfall patterns during El Niño, including periods of heavy rainfall followed by drought, can impact water quality and sanitation. When water quality is compromised, it can lead to the spread of diseases that are transmitted through water, such as cholera, typhoid fever, and leptospirosis. These diseases can make people sick if they drink or use contaminated water.

In addition to waterborne diseases, people may also experience heat cramps, heat exhaustion, and even heat stroke. To stay healthy during this time, the Department of Health (DOH) advises the public to conserve water, make sure water sources are not contaminated, stay updated with shellfish bans (as shellfish can accumulate toxins during El Niño), and drink plenty of water to prevent dehydration and reduce the risk of these diseases.

4. El Niño can degrade aquatic ecosystems

Our country is made up of many islands which have stunning oceans, but El Niño can harm our underwater world, specifically coral reefs. These reefs are home to a wide range of marine life. When the water gets too warm for too long, the corals become stressed and lose their colorful appearance. This stress makes them more vulnerable to diseases and other problems.

5. Possibility of electricity supply shortage is high during El Niño

El Niño can influence the availability and reliability of hydropower generation like what happened in Mindanao in 2019. Reduced water during drought conditions can limit the capacity to generate electricity from hydropower plants. This can result in power shortages and increased reliance on other energy sources, potentially affecting energy prices and supply stability.